As we look toward the future, one of the most dynamic real estate markets in the world — New York City — continues to evolve. To kick off our new series, we’ve polled some of the top BHS agents in the city to gather their predictions on what the NYC market will look like in 2025. From shifting trends to emerging opportunities, these industry insiders are sharing their expertise on what buyers, sellers, and investors can expect in the year ahead. Read on to discover what’s in store for the 2025 NYC real estate market!
Lisa Lippman
"My forecast is that I am very bullish that the Spring is going to be a good market because we thought Fall 2024 would be healthy, but it wasn't. By the time the election was over, and we started to feel momentum, the holidays were hitting. The Spring market is always better than the Fall and is a longer season, but this one will be better than the last few. Whenever we have a low transaction year it is followed by a better year. We expect good Wall Street bonuses. People are feeling very good about living in New York-older people, younger people and everyone in between.
I also think buyers are starting to come to the reality that mortgage rates might not be dropping much more and they have adjusted to that reality.
Having said all the above- as I have said for a while: if sellers get greedy and overprice in this market, they simply will not sell." -Lisa Lippman
Ari Harkov
"Interest rates have been the dominant topic of conversation in the US real estate market since the spring of 2022 when the Fed began their rate hike campaign and rates quickly moved from 2/3% to 6-8%. With inflationary pressures still strong and the prospect of tariffs, which will drive up the price of goods, tax cuts, which will create more disposable income and potentially also drive up prices, robust equities and crypto markets that support consumer spending, and a labor market that remains resilient, rates do not appear to be coming down meaningfully any time soon. My expectation is that rates will remain in the 7% range, which will put a damper on supply and demand. Conversely, as this spring will mark the 3rd year since rates rose and market activity cooled, I expect we will see more sellers and buyers who decide they can no longer wait and must move on with their lives, hopefully offsetting some of the impact of higher rates. Finally, absent a meaningful shift in the dynamics of the labor market, the return to office in NYC will likely remain flat, subduing any potential rebound in the residential market driven by in person workers looking to secure housing closer to the office. In sum, I anticipate a 2025 market that looks and acts pretty similarly to 2024." - Ari Harkov
Warner Lewis
"In 2025 I believe pent up demand will push buyers back into the market and across the finish line now. Back to office has started and will be one of the factors that help spur the thawing of the sales market." - Warner Lewis
Brian Manning
“We feel that clarity has come to the real estate market as a result of recent events. It is our opinion that there were people waiting to see what developments would take place on a national level. Now that those questions have been resolved, and the prospect of lower interest rates loom, we are optimistic going forward.
We have seen an increased level of interest on the part of buyers who now have decided to move ahead.” - Brian Manning
Christopher Franklin
“We expect that the discretionary ultra-luxury all-cash market (over $10m) will continue to perform well in New York, Palm Beach, and Miami given the performance of the broader equity markets. We also anticipate New York City seeing an increase in foreign buyers seeking a flight to superior hard assets.
The traditional pre-war co-op market in Manhattan remains a mature asset class. Pricing that takes into account increased renovation cost, timing, and reduced buyer appetite to do so remains critical to a successful sale. Having an experienced broker and firm like Brown Harris Stevens with deep knowledge of this market is a strong competitive advantage.Also, the Hamptons second-home market saw a 50% increase in year-over-year contracts in November. That market has reached more of an equilibrium and pricing to the market will remain critical for a successful sale.” - Christopher Franklin
Louise Phillips Forbes
"Political opinions and positions aside, from Main Street to Wall Street, all eyes are on a "Trump Bump," which is essentially confidence in change. The new administration's policies will have a direct impact on how the market responds, specifically with interest rates and their cause and effect on inventory. Wall Street is already seeing benefits of the Bump, and the real estate market should reap the rewards of that in the first two quarters of 2025. This will trickle down further with interest rates decreasing, first time buyers are finding themselves back in the market looking for a piece of The Rock. Locally, we began seeing a flurry of activity during the last months of 2024. With the lack of inventory across the nation and first-time buyers eager to avoid paying someone else's mortgage, NYC appraisals were simply not able to keep up." - Louise Phillips Forbes
Scott Harris
"There has been a swirl of news around mortgage rates, low inventory, and other headwinds impeding the real estate market. To be sure, 2024 was a challenging year for buyers, sellers, and the real estate industry. However, beneath the surface in New York City has been a steady stream of sales volume, all-cash transactions, and higher-profile transactions above the $4m mark. To continue this metaphor, think of buyer and seller demand like a powerful river. Nothing is going to stop it from eventually breaking through whatever gets in its way. 2025 is when the dam breaks. New York sellers are finally what savvy agents have been saying for the better part of the year: buyer demand is here, along with deep pockets and liquidity. I predict that this coming year will be a return to health, with sales volume steadily increasing, regardless of mortgage rate directionality. When rates finally do soften, however, the flood gates will really open. Behind this demand, prices will find a floor. I even expect some price appreciation by the end of 2025." - Scott Harris