Today, we present the latest on consumer spending and mortgage rates, and we pay tribute to a true legend who passed away this week.

Retail Sales Up Just 0.1% in May

In another sign that the economy is cooling, retail sales rose just 0.1% last month, lower than the consensus-expected gain of 0.3%. Sales were up 2.3% compared to a year ago, almost one percent lower than the increase in prices during that time. Remember that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so the 2.3% annual increase is more like a 1% decline if you adjust for the 3.25% change in prices over the past 12 months.

One notable finding was a 2.2% drop in sales at gas stations last month, but that can be attributed to a big decline in gas prices during May. Also of note was a 0.4% decrease in sales at both the grocery stores and restaurants and bars categories.

To summarize, consumer spending can no longer keep up with inflation, as consumers are running out of money. They’ve already run up $1.115 trillion in credit card debt and spent the excess savings they received during the pandemic. That said, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for 2Q24 is currently at 3.0%, so it looks like we are still pretty far away from a recession.

Let’s move on to happier news.

Mortgage Rates Fell for the Third Straight Week

The average 30-year conforming mortgage fell to 6.87% last week according to Freddie Mac, the third consecutive weekly decline in rates. 30-year rates are now at their lowest level since early April. While they may still not be low enough to draw in more buyers, at least rates are moving in the right direction.

Willie Mays 1931-2024

Willie Mays—the greatest living baseball player—died this week at 93 years old. Mays was the oldest living hall of fame member, and an inspiration to so many of the players that followed him. How great was Willie Mays? Well, here are some amazing statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com:

• In the history of baseball only two position players have posted a higher wins above replacement (or WAR to its friends), Barry Bonds—Willie’s godson—and Babe Ruth. WAR includes both offensive and defensive metrics, so it’s a good measure of a player’s total value.

• Mays led his league in WAR during 10 different seasons, the second most ever.

• He won 12 gold gloves during his career, the most of any center fielder.

• From 1957-1966 he never finished lower than sixth in MVP voting.

I think you get the point by now: Willie is clearly one of the top players in MLB history. He was also known to play stickball games with kids during homestands. How cool would that have been, to play with one of the greatest ever?

Rest in peace Willie.