It's been a scorcher this week in Manhattan, so welcome to the overheated edition of The Line.

Mortgage Rates Fall for the Second Straight Week

I should just stop at the headline and not point out that 30-year rates are still above 7%, but that would be irresponsible of me. As I’ve said in the past few columns, better-than-expected economic data continues to keep mortgage rates high, even as the rate of inflation has come down sharply. And based on the latest data on hiring and consumer spending, it doesn’t look like a recession is coming any time soon.

Since high rates will be sticking around for a while, the big question is how low do rates need to go to get buyers off the sidelines? Well, John Burns Research & Consulting has the answer. They surveyed more than 1,300 homeowners and renters, and 71% said they won’t accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. So, 5.5% is now known as the "magic" mortgage rate.

They also found that 62% of respondents think a "historically normal" mortgage rate is below 5.5%, which is much lower than what 30-year rates have actually averaged over the last 50 years. Using Freddie Mac data going back to 1971, 30-year mortgage rates have averaged 7.7%, more than 2% higher than what consumers think. To quote Cool Hand Luke: "what we’ve got here is failure to communicate".

So, to all the brokers reading this column, make sure you tell those fence sitters out there:
 

1. Over the past half century, 30-year mortgage rates have averaged almost 8%.
2. We were spoiled over the past 15 years with incredibly low rates that won’t be coming back for a long time.

That way, potential buyers can make more informed decisions.

73 Million Americans Plan to Bet on NFL Games This Season

Nope, that’s not a misprint. The data comes from a survey conducted by the American Gaming Association, and that number is up almost 60% from last season. Reading that headline, I couldn’t help but think of the "betting Freddie" episode of The Flintstones, but I digress. The huge increase is due to the continued legalization of online sports betting, with over 30 states now permitting it.

I am not a big fan of legalized sports gambling, especially since you can’t watch a game these days without seeing a ton of commercials reminding you that you can still place wagers on the game even after it’s started. So, while the Jets fan in me is pumped for the upcoming season—we finally have a quarterback—I will not be placing any wagers on my favorite team, which is probably a good idea based on their record over the past 12 years.

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